Bitcoin Retirement Loan Calculator

Bitcoin Retirement Loan Calculator

This isn’t your typical Bitcoin retirement calculator that forecasts a yearly BTC price and assumes you sell a portion each year to cover living expenses.

Instead, it models a tax-efficient strategy where you never sell your Bitcoin.

You fund retirement by borrowing against your holdings, letting your BTC continue to appreciate over time. Because these withdrawals are structured as debt rather than sales, they are tax-free, allowing you to preserve your assets while maintaining a predictable income stream. This approach leverages Bitcoin’s growth potential while minimizing taxable events, offering a more strategic path to long-term wealth.


BTC Growth Periods

About This Model

This calculator models Bitcoin as a long-term store of value with a staged growth curve. It is based on historical BTC performance, realistic adoption patterns, and asset maturation theory.

Over the last 10 years, BTC experienced highly volatile CAGR. From 2013–2023, it averaged ~50–60% per year, and from 2018–2023 the CAGR was ~28%. CAGR is calculated as:

CAGR = (Ending Price / Starting Price)^(1 / Years) - 1

Growth is divided into four phases:

  • Phase 1 (0-5 yrs): 30% annual growth – early adoption, halving-driven acceleration
  • Phase 2 (6-15 yrs): 15% annual growth – expansion slows, market matures
  • Phase 3 (16-30 yrs): 8% annual growth – mature store-of-value behavior
  • Phase 4 (31+ yrs): 5% annual growth – digital gold, approaching saturation

Large early gains are realistic due to compounding during adoption and speculative phases. Later, growth tapers as market size and liquidity increase, similar to equities or gold. Sliders allow adjustments to all four phases for different assumptions.

The above model was built by a very conservative ChatGPT based on historical data based on my request. I personally think BTC should hit $1million by 2030, so i will adjust my top slider to a level where 1 BTC is equal to $1M in the far right column at year 5. This would be close to 67%.

Bitcoin does not follow a smooth, linear growth trajectory like shown here ( which is a flattened average) —historically, Bitcoin has experienced multiple 5x–10x rallies followed by declines of 70–80% in certain years—it is expected that over the next 10 to 20 years, these extreme fluctuations will moderate. As adoption matures, returns are likely to become lower but more stable, reflecting patterns observed in other long-term asset classes such as equities and gold.





Annual Living Need ($)