About This Model
This calculator models Bitcoin as a long-term store of value with a staged growth curve. It is based on historical BTC performance, realistic adoption patterns, and asset maturation theory.
Over the last 10 years, BTC experienced highly volatile CAGR. From 2013–2023, it averaged ~50–60% per year, and from 2018–2023 the CAGR was ~28%. CAGR is calculated as:
CAGR = (Ending Price / Starting Price)^(1 / Years) - 1
Growth is divided into four phases:
- Phase 1 (0-5 yrs): 30% annual growth – early adoption, halving-driven acceleration
- Phase 2 (6-15 yrs): 15% annual growth – expansion slows, market matures
- Phase 3 (16-30 yrs): 8% annual growth – mature store-of-value behavior
- Phase 4 (31+ yrs): 5% annual growth – digital gold, approaching saturation
Large early gains are realistic due to compounding during adoption and speculative phases. Later, growth tapers as market size and liquidity increase, similar to equities or gold. Sliders allow adjustments to all four phases for different assumptions.
The above model was built by a very conservative ChatGPT based on historical data based on my request.
I personally think BTC should hit $1million by 2030, so i will adjust my top slider to a level where 1 BTC is equal to $1M in the far right column at year 5.
